Vladimir Putin’s threatened retaliation towards Ukraine over its drone attack on Russia’s bomber fleet has not occurred but in earnest, regardless of heavy bombardment of Kharkiv and Kyiv the previous two days, and is prone to be a major, multi-pronged strike quickly, US officers have informed Reuters. One senior western diplomat anticipated a “large, vicious and unrelenting” assault by Moscow.
Michael Kofman, a Russia knowledgeable on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace, mentioned Russia would possibly search to punish Ukraine’s SBU home safety company which orchestrated final weekend’s assault, presumably using intermediate-range ballistic missiles, in addition to concentrating on defence manufacturing websites. Nonetheless, Kofman steered Russia’s choices for retaliation could also be restricted, because it was already throwing a number of its army would possibly at Ukraine. “Typically, Russia’s capacity to considerably escalate strikes from what they’re already doing – and trying to do over the previous month – is kind of constrained.”
The Ukrainian drone assault – known as Operation Spiderweb – probably broken about 10% of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet and hit a number of the plane as they had been being ready for strikes on Ukraine, in keeping with a German army evaluation. Maj Gen Christian Freuding informed a YouTube podcast that “greater than a dozen plane had been broken, TU-95 and TU-22 strategic bombers in addition to A-50 surveillance planes”. He mentioned “solely a handful” of the A-50s exist and might now not be used for spare elements.
Regardless of the losses, Freuding didn’t see any rapid discount of Russian strikes towards Ukraine, noting that Moscow retained 90% of its strategic bombers, which might launch ballistic and cruise missiles along with dropping bombs. “However there may be, after all, an oblique impact because the remaining planes might want to fly extra sorties, that means they are going to be worn out sooner, and, most significantly, there’s a large psychological impression.”
Freuding mentioned Russia had felt protected in its huge territory, which additionally defined why there was little safety for the plane. “After this profitable operation, this not holds true. Russia might want to ramp up the safety measures.”
Russia and Ukraine have accused one another of thwarting a large-scale prisoner alternate that was agreed in the last week, with Kyiv denying Russian allegations that it had indefinitely the postponed prisoner swaps whereas accusing Moscow of “enjoying soiled video games”. At talks in Istanbul on Monday, Kyiv and Moscow agreed to launch greater than 1,000 individuals on either side, whereas Russia mentioned it could additionally hand again the stays of 6,000 killed Ukrainian troopers.
Russia’s defence ministry mentioned in a press release: “The Russian aspect has offered the Ukrainian aspect with an inventory of 640 names, however the Ukrainian aspect is at the moment refraining from setting a date for the return of those people and the switch of the corresponding variety of Russian prisoners of warfare.”
Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Remedy of Prisoners of Struggle mentioned no date had been agreed for the return of our bodies and {that a} listing of names Russia mentioned can be launched didn’t match the phrases of the settlement. Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine’s nationwide safety and defence council, mentioned “statements by the Russian aspect don’t correspond to actuality”.
