The NBA has a little bit of a fame for chalky playoffs. Latest historical past suggests in any other case. It was solely two years in the past, as an example, the second spherical featured one crew holding each seed between No. 1 and No. 8. Final 12 months’s convention finals featured just one top-two seed. That is the NBA’s parity period. Meaning condensed standings within the common season and upsets within the playoffs.
It is our job now to determine the place these upsets are going to return. Now that (most) first-round matchups are set, the CBS Sports activities NBA workers went matchup-by-matchup to make our picks to advance to the ultimate eight. A few of these matchups are fairly simple. You will be shocked to listen to that we anticipate the defending champion Boston Celtics to advance in opposition to the Orlando Magic. Others, particularly within the packed center of the standings, are much more difficult.
Beneath are our workers picks for the primary spherical. A few of us will look sensible. Others, silly. If latest NBA historical past is any indication, anticipate a bit extra of the latter than the previous. Whereas there are a number of juggernauts on the prime of the bracket, it is anybody’s guess as to who will emerge as their best threats because the playoffs progress.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Orlando Magic
Collection odds: Celtics -8000, Magic +2200 (by way of FanDuel)
Botkin: Celtics in 5. Sweeps are onerous within the NBA, and the Magic could make a few these video games shut with their protection and a random first rate offensive exhibiting. However it is a mismatch. Celtics cruise.
Herbert: Celtics in 4. The Celtics dropped one recreation within the first spherical in opposition to the Heat final 12 months. They dropped two the 12 months earlier than in opposition to the Hawks. It is time, I believe, for them to begin the playoffs by simply stomping on anyone. (Additionally, the Magic are going to have an extremely robust time scoring in opposition to Boston.)
Maloney: Celtics in 4. The Magic have the worst offensive score (108.9) of any playoff crew, and easily don’t have the firepower to publish a severe menace to the defending champions.
Quinn: Celtics in 5. The Magic defend the 3-point line nicely sufficient to steal a recreation, however with out Jalen Suggs, they pose no menace in anyway to the defending champs.
Ward-Henninger: Celtics in 4. Even when the Celtics have one anomalously poor taking pictures evening, the Magic merely cannot rating sufficient to maintain up with them. With a number of bodily defenders to throw at Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero all through the collection, Orlando’s poor offense may be much more destitute. I would prefer to suppose the Magic might steal a recreation, however that is most likely not very reasonable.
Wimbish: Celtics in 4. Orlando simply would not have sufficient taking pictures. The Magic win with their protection, we noticed that as they suffocated a shorthanded Hawks crew within the play-in. However in opposition to a crew that averages 48.2 3-point makes an attempt a recreation, it is going to be troublesome to maintain up with that.
Collection odds: Knicks -420, Pistons +330
Botkin: Knicks in 7. Detroit goes to make life hell for the Knicks. That is greater than a pleasant story; this crew defends like loopy and Cade Cunningham is inconceivable to maintain out of the paint. However the Knicks have extra dependable secondary offensive choices, and I believe that wins it for them in a really tight collection.
Herbert: Knicks in 6. Cade Cunningham has given New York (and all people else) issues this season. He will goal Karl-Anthony Towns in pick-and-rolls, and, in that scenario, I do not love any of the coverages the Knicks can select from. Alternatively, the Pistons are (principally) inexperienced, and I do not belief them to defend an elite offense like this with out fouling. They’ve much less high-end expertise, too.
Maloney: Knicks in 6. This may very well be a stylish upset choose for some, however in addition to the Pistons have performed within the second half of the season, the actual fact of the matter is they do not have as many good gamers because the Knicks, or as a lot expertise.
Quinn: Knicks in 7. It is a sneakily harmful collection for the Knicks. Ausar Thompson goes to make life depressing for Jalen Brunson. Ultimately, although, there are simply too many Pistons the Knicks can assist off defensively, so Detroit will wrestle to attain sufficient to win.
Ward-Henninger: Knicks in 6. The Pistons are a terrific story, however I simply belief the Knicks’ expertise — notably that of Jalen Brunson — over a crew led by a proficient level guard in his first postseason. Certainly one of Cade Cunningham’s few flaws is that he is slightly free with the ball, and the Knicks have the defensive power, size and pace to make his life hell for your entire collection.
Wimbish: Knicks in 6. Make no mistake, the Knicks should not take Detroit calmly. This is not the crew from a season in the past that set an NBA losing-streak report. However I am leaning on the expertise and craftiness of Jalen Brunson, and Karl-Anthony Cities to overpower a younger Pistons crew that’s probably a 12 months or two away from severe rivalry.
Collection odds: Pacers -176, Bucks +148
Botkin: Pacers in 6. Nice information that Damian Lillard has been cleared to return. However he is nonetheless out for Sport 1 and no person is aware of when, precisely, he’ll return, or whether or not he’ll be capable to simply hit the bottom operating at full pace, so to talk. Giannis is sufficient to make this a aggressive collection if the Bucks are making a good quantity of their 3s, however ultimately, it has been the Pacers who’ve been top-of-the-line groups within the league for the final three-plus months. With or with out Lillard, the Bucks lose this collection. They’re going to simply make it slightly nearer with him.
Herbert: Pacers in 6. With or with out Damian Lillard, Milwaukee would not have the personnel to sluggish Indiana down. I am extra assured in Indiana’s function gamers than Milwaukee’s, and I am undecided what to anticipate of Lillard after greater than a month off. This choose makes me a bit nervous as a result of I can envision Giannis Antetokounmpo repeatedly getting the Indiana bigs in foul bother, however I also can envision the Pacers’ pace sporting down Milwaukee over the course of the collection.
Maloney: Pacers in 7. Damian Lillard’s impending return makes this collection much more fascinating, however he will miss at the least Sport 1 and it is nonetheless unclear when he’ll be again on the courtroom. And in addition to Giannis Antetokounmpo has been enjoying these days, it is simply too onerous to belief the Bucks’ supporting forged in a playoff setting.
Quinn: Pacers in 6. Milwaukee is simply at an excessive amount of of a expertise drawback to compensate right here with Damian Lillard out for at least Game 1. However even when the Bucks get him again mid-series, he simply offers Indiana’s offense a goal to assault on different finish. The Pacers have been nice for 3 stable months now and will advance to the second spherical.
Ward-Henninger: Pacers in 7. It is onerous to foretell this collection not figuring out how a lot — if something — the Bucks will get from Damian Lillard, however even with out him the Pacers, like most groups, merely don’t have any reply for Giannis Antetokounmpo. In the end Indiana simply has extra weapons than Milwaukee if Dame is even reasonably compromised, and I belief them in a Sport 7 at residence with Tyrese Haliburton on the helm.
Wimbish: Pacers in 7. With out Damian Lillard — at the least to begin the collection — that is going to be a tall process for Milwaukee. The Pacers are getting into this collection with the eighth-best protection for the reason that All-Star break, and Tyrese Haliburton is trying just like the All-Star model of himself from final season. That being stated, I do not see a world the place Giannis Antetokounmpo would not attempt to push this to a seven-game collection.
Giannis Antetokounmpo won’t be distracted by testy Bucks-Pacers history, explains why even losing is ‘win-win’
Colin Ward-Henninger
Collection odds: Rockets +138, Warriors -166
Botkin: Warriors in 7. Overlook in regards to the Rockets being “younger” — it is a nasty crew in all the best methods. They’re far more athletic than the Warriors and defensively armed to make Stephen Curry’s life depressing at the least for lengthy stretches, if not whole video games. Level is not going to come simply for the Warriors, however finally, they’ve two guys in Curry and Jimmy Butler who can create offense out of nothing for the handful of possessions that I consider will swing this collection. Disclaimer: Houston has guys who can create, too. Individuals are speaking about them like they can not rating. They’re nearly a top-10 offense. Jalen Green might be the very best scorer on the ground in any recreation. Identical for Alperen Sengun in opposition to Golden State’s small lineups. This has dogfight written throughout it.
Herbert: Warriors in 6. The case for the Rockets is easy: They’re greater and extra athletic than the Warriors, and Stephen Curry has by no means confronted a playoff opponent this outfitted to defend him. I am going with the Warriors, although, for equally simple causes: Their protection has been even higher than the Rockets’ for the reason that Jimmy Butler commerce, and their offense has been far superior.
Maloney: Warriors in 6. The Rockets’ size, athleticism and tenacious protection goes to make this a really irritating collection at occasions for Steph Curry and Co., however the place are the hampers going to return from, particularly within the clutch?
Quinn: Warriors in 7. This collection jogs my memory fairly a little bit of Golden State’s seven-game victory over Sacramento two years in the past. It’ll be a brutal, bodily collection, and Houston’s athleticism will pose actual issues, however I am not selecting a crew this younger in opposition to Stephen Curry.
Ward-Henninger: Warriors in 6. That is a type of predictions that might probably look actually dangerous. The Rockets are younger, hungry and athletic, and we may very well be sitting right here in two weeks speaking about how sluggish and outdated they made the Warriors look. As an alternative, I will go together with what I’ve seen from Golden State over the previous two months and posit that Houston merely will not be capable to rating sufficient to maintain up with them. Both approach, it is going to be an absolute slugfest.
Wimbish: Warriors in 7. You possibly can say I am underestimating the Rockets, and which may be so. However the years and years of championship expertise that the Warriors have on their roster in Stephen Curry and Draymond Green matter. To not point out Jimmy Butler, who confirmed that “Playoff Jimmy” nonetheless exists after dropping 38 factors in Golden State’s play-in win in opposition to the Grizzlies.
With Playoff Jimmy Butler next to Stephen Curry, Warriors show exactly why they’re a threat to beat anyone
Brad Botkin
Collection odds: Lakers -186, Timberwolves +156
Botkin: Lakers in 6. One other shut collection. Anthony Edwards + protection is a profitable method in opposition to most groups, however the Lakers have two superstars, which means one goes to get the double and one goes to be catching in opposition to a scrambling protection. When Edwards is inevitably doubled, do you belief Julius Randle and Minnesota’s shooters to punish the Lakers? If the reply to that query is sure, Minnesota can win this collection. For me, it is a no.
Herbert: Lakers in 7. Luka Wolves will get to go at Rudy Gobert once more, however Anthony Edwards will get to go at Wolves (and neither Dereck Lively II nor Daniel Gafford might be ready for him within the paint this time). It is a fascinating distinction in types, particularly if JJ Redick decides to bench Jaxson Hayes and unfold the Wolves out. I do not know, man. I assume I am going to choose the crew that can have top-of-the-line playmakers in NBA historical past on the courtroom always.
Maloney: Lakers in 7. The Timberwolves have been superior down the stretch, they usually might win this collection. This choose comes down to at least one factor: the Lakers will be capable to maintain at the least one in every of LeBron James or Luka Dončić on the courtroom always.
Quinn: Lakers in 6. Minnesota will personal the glass on this collection, however that is not going to be sufficient. The Lakers have a lot ball-handling that they’ll be capable to hunt for the weak hyperlinks right here. The Lakers have weak hyperlinks too, however given the non-shooters in Minnesota’s rotation, they will simply double Anthony Edwards and make another person beat them. The Lakers are higher outfitted to win that form of collection.
Ward-Henninger: Lakers in 7. I believe the Wolves will make this a more durable collection that some give them credit score for, however on the finish of the day I belief the postseason resumés of Luka Dončić and LeBron James on the subject of a Sport 7. Anthony Edwards can go toe-to-toe with anybody and might be searching for his second, however the Wolves lack that true second choice to take a number of the burden off of him.
Wimbish: Lakers in 6. This one is easy: Luka Dončić loves enjoying Minnesota. Particularly, Dončić loves enjoying Rudy Gobert. He alone will not beat the Wolves, however him, coupled with LeBron James and Austin Reaves are going to be a troublesome trio for Minnesota to comprise over the course of a collection.
Collection odds: Nuggets +100, Clippers -118
Botkin: Clippers in 6. That is going to be an unimaginable collection. Nikola Jokić is the very best participant on earth and Jamal Murray has, for probably the most half, reprised his Robin function. Denver can and can prolong the minutes of its starters to restrict the harm the Clips can do in opposition to the bench. If that sustains, this might be a really shut collection. However pay attention, the Clippers are SUPER legit. If there’s anybody to problem Jokić as the very best participant in these playoffs, it may be Kawhi Leonard. He’s absolutely again. James Harden is coming off an unimaginable efficiency in opposition to Golden State in what was primarily a playoff recreation and stays an All-NBA downside. The Clippers have an elite protection, an elite huge man and an elite third scorer in Norman Powell. That is throughout an elite 1-2 famous person punch. The extra I write about them, the extra I am already getting ready to choose them in spherical two to upset the Thunder.
Herbert: Clippers in 7. Regardless of all of the drama in Denver, the Nuggets have been just about inconceivable to protect when Nikola Jokić has been on the courtroom this season. If Jamal Murray may even approximate what he did within the 2020 and 2023 playoffs, they will win this collection. I am taking the Clippers, although, as a result of they’re the extra balanced crew and their finest lineups have been annihilating all people for some time. Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are going to assault Denver’s weak hyperlinks relentlessly, and, based mostly on the common season, I am skeptical of the Nuggets’ capability to problem-solve defensively.
Maloney: Clippers in 6. Are all of us falling for it once more with the Clippers? Maybe, however they’ve gained 70% of their video games with Kawhi Leonard within the lineup. The Nuggets, in the meantime, don’t play protection and fired their coach a number of days in the past.
Quinn: Clippers in 7. The Clippers have been the second-best crew within the West for the previous month or two. The Nuggets have been in some disarray all 12 months and are about to enter the playoffs with a head coach that has three video games of expertise. By no means underestimate the ability of the reigning MVP, however the hole at each different spot is simply too vital.
Ward-Henninger: Clippers in 6. The Clippers have been top-of-the-line groups within the NBA over the previous couple of months, and are going through a crew that fired its championship-winning coach a few week in the past. However that crew additionally has Nikola Jokić, who can win — and has gained — playoff collection all by himself. Ivica Zubac is as succesful as any defender in opposition to him, and the Clippers’ bevy of perimeter stoppers ought to be capable to restrict Jamal Murray. If Kawhi Leonard stays wholesome and James Harden is anyplace close to what he was within the common season, it is onerous to see the Clippers shedding.
Wimbish: Clippers in 7. This can be probably the most fascinating collection of the bunch within the first spherical. Kawhi Leonard is trying like his classic self, James Harden has been quietly placing collectively an All-NBA caliber season, and, since Jan. 1, the Clippers have the fourth-best internet score within the league. I am not discounting Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets, however on the identical time, if Jamal Murray is not working at full power, then this collection is over.
