Is Atlanta Braves 2B Ozzie Albies cooked? (April Version)

“If I used to be involved about somebody, it might be Albies. I feel typically he appears fairly cooked (relative to how he was) – Statcast metrics didn’t like him and accidents appear to be really piling up.” – Me

** stares at .244/.314/.436 line, which is sweet sufficient for a 110 wRC+ towards his profession 108 wRC+ **

I’ve by no means precisely been an Ozzie Albies “hater”, however I don’t assume you would ever classify as one in every of his greatest followers, both. He doesn’t stroll loads. He’s actually streaky on the plate. His swing from the left aspect seems to be like he’s swinging a tree trunk that’s too heavy for him to carry. And I used to be most likely one of many first folks to offer him a tough time about how sluggish he’s to show a double play.

However on the identical time, there’s at all times been loads to love about him. His smile and perspective appear infectious. He doesn’t strike out loads, and he’s received good pop for his place (to not point out his measurement). And he’s a legitimately good participant.

However there’s been some instability over the previous couple of years.

Whereas his BABIP has been fairly steady, his wRC+ has gone from below-average to WOW to below-average once more.

His video games performed have gone from 64 to 148 to 99.

His defensive worth has gone from a little bit above common to beneath common to common.

His Statcast has gone from …

To …

To …

Taking a look at issues like bat pace and exit velocity, it feels just like the outlier actually is the 2023 season with all that purple. And that’s what led me to my pessimistic view of how Albies would do in 2025 and transferring ahead.

However feels isn’t actually ok, proper? We’re right here for evaluation, so let’s check out the early-season returns. And I’ll have a pair follow-up posts as we undergo the season to see the way it goes.

Early-season seems to be are a little bit tenuous. There’s a ton of noise, and everybody remains to be moving into the … swing of issues.

Groan.

However we’re one-eighth of the way in which via the season, and we will most likely see just a few issues.

On the floor, Ozzie is doing fairly properly. His 110 wRC+ that I discussed earlier is correct round his profession common, and if he have been to do this all season, he’d be value about 4 wins, which is a borderline All-Star caliber season. What does Statcast say?

Offensively, it’s fairly muted. Ozzie’s bat pace continues to worsen, and the exit velocity isn’t any higher. However once you have a look at his BABIP, it’s .238, so that you’re like “It’s certain to return up, proper?” Eh, most likely not if he doesn’t begin swinging tougher and making tougher contact.

So why is his wRC+ so excessive then? Nicely, I’ll take your eyes towards that BB% quantity. A 9.3% stroll price can be his highest stroll price since his rookie season … by two complete share factors. Keep in mind after I stated he doesn’t stroll a lot? However is that for actual?

You’ll see a pair issues on this chart. One, he’s swinging much less at pitches out of the zone, nevertheless it’s not likely a significant change (however hey, it’s a part of it). Two, he’s swinging loads much less typically, as his Z-Swing% (swings at pitches within the zone) is WAY lower than he’s ever completed. So he’s been extra passive/selective, and that’s confirmed along with his precise Swing%.

However the different half that’s fascinating is the 50% of first pitches for strikes. Albies hasn’t impulsively turn into a fearsome hitter the place pitchers are afraid of him – we simply talked about how he didn’t do very properly final 12 months – and being extra passive/selective on the plate wouldn’t do something to this. My guess is that that is an early-season aberration, and it’s been placing him in good counts, resulting in extra walks than traditional (together with at the least a number of the rationalization of why he’s swinging much less, although that appears to be a team-wide technique).

So in whole, he’s making worse contact than he has beforehand after I was already anxious, and the one factor he actually had going for him isn’t one thing I feel he’s certain to proceed.

Defensively, I’m really inspired. He’s received some unhealthy numbers above, however 2023 really appears the aberration right here. Albies can’t flip a double-play rapidly to avoid wasting his life, however he’s typically had good vary, which is probably the most useful defensive talent. If the offense goes to dip to common(ish), it’s good to be a optimistic with the glove.

Alright, so we’re like 20 video games in. It’s too early to declare something so far as the Atlanta Braves are involved. However regardless of the early-season appearances of a bounceback, I’m not terribly satisfied. I’m cheering for him, although. There are few gamers who present the identical pleasure for the sport that Albies does, and we want extra of that. We simply want extra indications that we will get again to 2023 with the bat.